Capture forecasts before they are forgotten, assign confidence, receive community and AI feedback, and build a verifiable public forecasting reputation over time. The prediction is the input. Reputation is the output.
Brier-based
Deterministic scoring
Calibrated
Confidence meets reality
Verifiable
Permanent public record
State a specific, measurable, time-bound prediction with a confidence level and resolution criteria.
The crowd reacts Agree/Disagree/Unsure and an independent AI gives its own probability.
When the event resolves, deterministic Brier-based scoring updates your verifiable track record.
Reputation, Trust, Accuracy, Calibration and per-domain Expertise — every change traceable to a resolved forecast.
When you say 90%, are you right ~90% of the time? Reliability curves and ECE keep forecasters honest.
Every forecast gets an independent AI probability, counterarguments and risk factors — advisory, never decisive.
Human vs Human, Human vs AI, Community vs AI. After resolution, see who was closest.
Being right when it was hard to be right earns more. Obvious predictions earn almost nothing.
Global, category, country and time-period rankings — ranked by judgment, not volume.